C
Urban Threads Boutique
Network Impact Report
Promo: 25% Off Slim Fit Jeans & Blue Henley
Period: Nov 1, 2025 – Nov 15, 2025
Generated March 7, 2026
Executive Summary
Estimated margin impact from promo and network effects
Naive Impact
$4,892.50
Revenue − COGS on promo items
True Portfolio Impact
$3,322.50
After network effects
Naive measurement overstates ROI by 32.1% — a $1,570.00 difference
Reported Promo Margin
$4,892.50
1,247 units
Cannibalization
-$2,150.00
43.9% of gross
Halo
$580.00
11.9% of gross
Net Margin Impact
$3,322.50
−32.1% vs reported
Baseline vs Actual
Margin Waterfall
Gross Lift+$4,892.50
Cannibalization-$2,150.00
Halo Effect+$580.00
Net Impact+$3,322.50
Key Learnings
- •Cannibalization on Gray Henley was 30% higher than typical same-category effects, likely due to identical style/fit.
- •Similar denim promos that excluded chinos from the discount saw 22% less cannibalization.(vs. 12 comparable promos)
Network Effects Detail
Top Cannibalization Drivers
Highest-confidence effects on products NOT included in the promotion
| Product | Cannibalized By | Lost Units | Margin Impact | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray Henley Shirt | Blue Henley Shirt (on sale) | -111 | -$890.00 | 92% |
| Relaxed Fit Jeans | Slim Fit Jeans (on sale) | -90 | -$720.00 | 85% |
| Khaki Chinos | Slim Fit Jeans (on sale) | -90 | -$540.00 | 71% |
Top Halo Drivers
Highest-confidence effects on products NOT included in the promotion
| Product | Boosted By | Gained Units | Margin Impact | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leather Belt | Slim Fit Jeans (on sale) | +50 | $350.00 | 88% |
| ↳ cannibalized Canvas Belt | -15 | -$75.00 | 68% | |
| ↳ Net effect | +35 | $275.00 | ||
| Chelsea Boots | Slim Fit Jeans (on sale) | +30 | $150.00 | 78% |
| Crew Socks (3-pack) | Slim Fit Jeans (on sale) | +35 | $80.00 | 72% |
SKU-Level Breakdown
Variant-level effects for products with multiple sizes/colors
Gray Henley Shirt
| Variant | Baseline | Actual | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Small | 48 | 18 | -30 |
| Medium | 68 | 25 | -43 |
| Large | 62 | 24 | -38 |
Leather Belt
| Variant | Baseline | Actual | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30" | 45 | 60 | +15 |
| 32" | 52 | 70 | +18 |
| 34" | 59 | 76 | +17 |
Methodology & Data Quality
Data Summary
- Date Range
- May 1, 2025 – Nov 30, 2025
- SKUs Analyzed
- 47
- Transaction Rows
- 8,460
- Cost Data
- Available
Column Mapping
date → order_date
sku_id → sku
quantity → qty
Model Details
- Model Version
- v1.0-beta
- Confidence Level
- high
- Edges Consulted
- 6
- Avg. Edge Confidence
- 81%
Initial Estimate
These relationships are detected from cross-elasticity patterns in your sales data. Confidence will improve as we:
- •Observe actual promo outcomes
- •Incorporate your feedback on product relationships
- •Accumulate more historical data
Limitations
Important caveats to consider when interpreting results
- •No paid media spend included in this analysis
- •Relationships are detected hypotheses—validate with domain knowledge
- •This report is designed to be directionally correct and auditable
How to Improve This Analysis
Suggested data additions for more accurate results
- →Provide longer transaction history (2+ years ideal)
- →Your feedback, decision context, and outcome capture in the app directly refine future analyses